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http://hdl.handle.net/10071/12754
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Title: The confident forecaster. Lessons from the upscaling of the electricity industry in England and Wales
Authors: Madureira, N. L.
Keywords: Learning curve
Energy
Electricity
Forecasting
History of technology
Issue Date: 2017
Publisher: Routledge/Taylor and Francis
Abstract: This article analyses the upscaling technological stage in the life cycle of capital-intensive technologies from the business history viewpoint. We correspondingly demonstrate how the pursuit of technological trajectories based on systematic increases in the size and power capacities of units pushed a new class of professionals, skills and procedures to the forefront of business decision-making. From 1958 onwards, forecasting framed and sharpened organisational insight into problems. Drawing on archival data on coal-fired, oil-fired and nuclear powered stations in England and Wales, the final section proceeds to measure the gap between reality and forecasts and singles out three major hypotheses to explain forecasting errors: inability to predict rapid changes outside the model (inter-fuel substitution); disregard of technical shortcomings in replication and standardisation, and overconfidence in extrapolating cost reductions at higher capacity levels.
Peer reviewed: yes
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10071/12754
DOI: 10.1080/00076791.2016.1201074
ISSN: 0007-6791
Ciência-IUL: https://ciencia.iscte-iul.pt/id/ci-pub-29913
Accession number: WOS:000396833600005
Appears in Collections:CIES-RI - Artigos em revista científica internacional com arbitragem científica

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